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August 6, 2024 Perspectives on Market Volatility


Stocks must have gotten the memo that August tends to be weak historically. July, the eighth positive month in the past nine, was quickly forgotten as the beginning of August greeted us with a selloff. The primary catalyst was August 2’s weaker-than-expected employment report, which ignited concern that the U.S. economy could tip into recession. Several additional factors exacerbated the selling pressure:

  • Overly bullish sentiment and elevated valuations. Investor sentiment had become a bit frothy, particularly in the tech sector, and stocks had simply gotten a bit ahead of themselves, as discussed in LPL’s Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn.

  • Seasonality. The historically weak month of August is a logical time for a selloff to reset investor sentiment to more normal levels.

  • Increased scrutiny around the payoffs for artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This scrutiny followed some evidence of slowing consumer demand during second quarter earnings season.

  • Leverage in the financial system. Borrowing in the yen (the so-called carry trade) is unwinding as global markets fall and the yen surges — plus some institutional traders appear to have been caught offsides in the downdraft, driving more forced selling.

So, what now? First, this is not the time to panic. Remember, pullbacks and corrections — as painful as they are — are a normal part of investing. Think of them as tolls to pay on the road to attractive long-term returns. The S&P 500 and its predecessor indexes have gained 11.5% annualized since 1950, through some of the worst wars, terrorist attacks, recessions, financial crises, pandemics, and natural disasters in history. And that’s while averaging a drawdown of over 10% per year – even in up years.

Turning to potential catalysts for a rebound, perhaps the most obvious one is the Federal Reserve (Fed). A 0.5% rate cut in September is now firmly on the table, and an emergency, intra-meeting cut, though unlikely, is possible if the economy weakens further. Simply put, restrictive monetary policy is no longer necessary. Expect the Fed to quickly get to a neutral stance, despite the perception that they might influence the election. “Higher for longer” created room for cuts.

Other drivers that could help turn stocks around include better economic data, reassuring commentary from corporate America, and more progress unwinding leveraged trades. Fundamentals still look good enough to keep this bull market going even as the economy slows into the election. Additional downside may be modest, and opportunities may soon emerge, but bottoming is a process. Be patient and allocate wisely.

Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Securities offered through LPL Financial | Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Four Financial Management a registered investment advisor & separate entity from LPL Financial.


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