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Just When We Recalibrated, Another Shock Arrived

  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last month’s decision to cut the fed funds target rate by a half percentage point was due to a “recalibrating” policy, as the Fed follows its dual mandate regarding inflation and growth. The new buzzword — recalibration — implies mechanical fine-tuning, but unfortunately, the macro economy is not that robotic. We are full of emotional people with ever-changing needs and wants. However, the buzzword also evokes something therapeutic; that is, the Fed is not cutting rates because of an imminent recession. In fact, the economy will likely grow above trend for yet another quarter or two. However, risks are rising for 2025. Blowout Payrolls, or Was It? We do not believe the Fed is cutting rates because a recession is just around the corner but rather because rates are still too restrictive. Yes, a slowdown looks likely next year, but for now, businesses are benefitting from a consumer on very good footing with higher income growth coupled with more
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Is your Financial Advisor a Fiduciary?

One of the most common questions I get from my new wealth management clients is “ARE YOU A FIDUCIARY?” This has been an issue that has been going back and forth between financial industry regulators and the financial services industry since I have been in the business since 1997 and probably well before that!  It has been in the news once again recently due to a recent Department of Labor “Fiduciary Rule” regulation. Therefore, I made this video with the hope of clarifying what being a fiduciary means with respect to financial advisory services and how you can tell if your advisor is one too!  I hope you find it informative! Click on the Arrow button in the box below to view the video! The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Investment Management refers to the discretionary investment management services provided through Four Financial Management, a registered invest

Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts

  I hope that you are doing well! Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.  This week's Weekly Market Commentary discusses the Federal Reserve's significant rate cut of half a percent on September 18, marking the first such adjustment since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn about the potential market implications of this move and the broader fiscal policies post-election, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that may arise from these pivotal financial decisions.  Click the link bel

Client Letter | The U.S. Economy and Financial Markets: Passing the Tests | September 4, 2024

With fall upon us and students back in classrooms, it seems like a good time to reflect on the various tests that the U.S. economy and stock market have passed recently. When the economy and markets are tested, the foundation for future growth and capital appreciation gets stronger. The Federal Reserve (Fed) engineered one of its most aggressive rate-tightening campaigns ever in 2022 and 2023, providing a tough test for the U.S. economy. Amid widespread calls for recession, the economy chugged right along, powered by consumers who continued to spend, even as rates rose. How did consumers do it? Stimulus helped, though we probably got more than we needed. So did low fixed-rate mortgages. Regardless of how it happened, and despite the Fed’s mixed track record, the economy passed this test. The economy also seems to have passed its inflation test. The widely followed Consumer Price Index, which peaked at 9.1% year over year in June 2022, dipped below 3% last month. Same with the Fed’s pre

September 28th 2024 Women Wealth & Wellness Workshop

  As a father of three daughters, Certified Financial Planner® and health coach I have made it my life’s mission to focus on inspiring and empowering women to live healthier and wealthier lives!  I'm looking for 10 women with strong values who would like to learn more about wealth management and wellness to attend my virtual Zoom workshop on Saturday, September 28 th from 12:00PM (EST) to 1:00PM (EST). Regardless of where you are in your life’s journey, there are key steps you can take to help maximize your wealth and wellness today!  If you would like to be empowered with the knowledge and specific actions steps to build your foundation of wealth and wellness reserve your spot today by emailing me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or phone at: (734) 272-4322. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC) . Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the exte

Three Important Themes Relating to the Latest Spike in Market Volatility

  I hope you are doing well and had a great weekend! Check out the short video in the link below where our Chief Economist discusses three important themes relating to the latest spike in financial market volatility! Current Financial Market Stress Levels and Implications   Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged

August 6, 2024 Perspectives on Market Volatility

Stocks must have gotten the memo that August tends to be weak historically. July, the eighth positive month in the past nine, was quickly forgotten as the beginning of August greeted us with a selloff. The primary catalyst was August 2’s weaker-than-expected employment report, which ignited concern that the U.S. economy could tip into recession. Several additional factors exacerbated the selling pressure: Overly bullish sentiment and elevated valuations. Investor sentiment had become a bit frothy, particularly in the tech sector, and stocks had simply gotten a bit ahead of themselves, as discussed in LPL’s Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn. Seasonality. The historically weak month of August is a logical time for a selloff to reset investor sentiment to more normal levels. Increased scrutiny around the payoffs for artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This scrutiny followed some evidence of slowing consumer demand during second quarter earnings season. Leverage in the